Will Omicron bring in Israel’s 5th outbreak, or will it ‘downgrade’ COVID-19?

Government adviser says ‘significant chance’ new coronavirus strain means a phase of high infection, but top doctor thinks it may prove milder, making it ‘the variant we wish for’

Government adviser Prof. Eran Segal thinks that there is a “significant” chance that Omicron is likely to become dominant and sweep Israel toward its fifth wave of infections.

“There is significant possibility that we will see a fifth wave due to Omicron, given what we’re learning about the variant,” the Weizmann Institute of Science computational biologist told The Times of Israel. “It could take several weeks, but there’s a significant chance it will happen.”

A vastly different assessment comes from the quiet virus wards of Hadassah Medical Centre in Jerusalem, where the head of COVID-19 care, Prof. Dror Mevorach, thinks the current low number of patients could well continue. He is, in fact, hopeful that Omicron could “downgrade the severity of coronavirus illness.”

Both experts are eagerly consuming all the same Omicron news as it emerges, such as information on the unusually high number of mutations that may allow the variant to dodge vaccines.

Segal said that “We shouldn’t allow the fact that numbers are now low to confuse us regarding the need to prepare for this. The nature of exponential growth is it takes time, but numbers can rapidly become humongous.”

“If it is more transmissible, there is no doubt that it will be the dominant strain here. In theory, that could be bad because if you have a more transmissible strain, even if it’s not more lethal, you’ll have greater exponential growth, which means a higher number of new cases.”

Mevorach, the Hadassah doctor, said that all things considered, he is optimistic. “After treating more than 5,000 patients in four waves, I know this is a very dangerous disease, yet I am still starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

This is thanks to vaccines, which have been administered to a large number of Israelis aged five and up, along with new antiviral treatments, which together mean that doctors have reached “a new era for fighting COVID.” And he thinks that the absence of deaths and reports of milder symptoms from Omicron than from other variants could give cause for hope.

Some scientists say that it makes evolutionary sense for the virus to become milder.

Mevorach told The Times of Israel: “On the one hand, Omicron is a menace, but on the other hand it may represent the variant we wish for. What is it that we wish for? One hope is that the disease disappears. But, if it doesn’t, we want a variant that’s transmitted easily but causes only very mild disease.

“It looks now like Omicron could represent this, and I see this possibility. If this is the case, it could transform the disease from something that is very threatening and causes illness and mortality, to something that is more like the flu, which does cause illness and mortality but in smaller numbers.

Editors Notes:

Hadassah UK proudly support Hadassah Hospital’s mission of peaceful coexistence, dedication to saving lives today, and finding medical solutions for a world of tomorrow.

 THIS ARTICLE BY NATHAN JEFFAY, FIRST APPEARED IN THE TIMES OF ISRAEL.